Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2021 - 2022 - 2023
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State Rank #10
New Haven Semi-State Rank #4
West Noble Regional Rank #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 9th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 4.4%
Top 10 at State Finals 49.7%
Advance to State Finals 94.8%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.



Season RatingPreseason Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Wildcat Classic West Noble Invitational Culver Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 8/27 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 264 250 262 226 267 377 303 291 332 254
Team Adjusted Rating 250 262 226 267 377 303 291 312 248
State RankRunnerSeason RatingPreseason Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Wildcat Classic West Noble Invitational Culver Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
27  Lexi Panning 11 18:54 18:57 19:06 19:16 19:06 19:12 19:52 20:01 19:30 20:07 18:46
28  Sarah Maple 9 18:56 18:57 18:53 18:32 18:51 19:18 19:03 18:59 18:57 18:56
178  Mallory Weller 9 20:14 19:44 19:50 19:41 20:13 20:47 20:19 20:32
208  Faye Kropf 12 20:23 21:03 20:22 20:29 20:15 20:24 20:51 20:27 20:25 20:46 20:14
215  Hannah Clark 9 20:24 20:27 20:27 20:14 20:21 20:47 20:24 20:27 20:28 20:16
233  Lilly Schlicker 9 20:30 21:26 21:07 20:31 20:33 20:42 20:12 20:17 20:24 20:23
322  Ellie Walters 10 20:50 20:58 20:52 21:12 20:26 21:16 21:09 21:19 20:41 20:39 21:17
521  Keller Whicker 12 21:29 20:04 21:14 21:41
1,026  Ali Risley 10 22:45 23:41 22:39 23:34 22:44 22:48 22:36 22:39
1,224  Sierra Luttik 10 23:13 21:17 22:26 22:49 23:11 23:35 24:13 22:57
1,262  Anna Clem 9 23:17 23:34 23:26 24:11 23:17 22:52 23:01 23:26
Joelle Borchelt 9 23:38 23:34 23:25 23:57 23:24 23:54
Emily Clark 11 23:42 22:13 23:22 23:42 23:56 24:02 23:48 23:29




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.





Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 94.8% 10.5 316 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.1 5.8 8.1 9.6 11.0 10.7 10.0 9.1 7.6 6.4 4.7 3.4 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Semi-State 100% 4.0 117 3.6 14.7 21.3 25.6 18.5 11.0 4.5 0.7
Regionals 100% 2.6 68 5.6 50.1 27.8 15.0 1.5
Sectionals 100% 2.2 55 7.3 63.6 27.4 1.7



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 100% 27.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.7 2.7 3.7 3.6 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.5 100.0% 100.0%
Sarah Maple 100% 29.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.3 100.0% 100.0%
Mallory Weller 94.8% 127.3 0.0% 15.3%
Faye Kropf 94.8% 138.1 0.0% 5.4%
Hannah Clark 94.8% 140.0 0.0% 4.5%
Lilly Schlicker 94.8% 146.1 0.0% 2.3%
Ellie Walters 94.8% 168.2 0.0% 0.1%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 100% 6.0 0.1 3.9 10.0 17.0 19.6 17.1 11.8 7.7 4.6 3.4 1.7 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Sarah Maple 100% 6.3 0.0 2.6 8.0 14.5 18.8 18.4 12.7 9.2 5.9 3.8 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Mallory Weller 100% 38.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.9 99.7%
Faye Kropf 100% 47.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 98.4%
Hannah Clark 100% 48.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 97.6%
Lilly Schlicker 100% 54.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 95.8%
Ellie Walters 100% 73.0 0.0 68.7%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 100% 3.2 0.1 8.5 36.5 31.7 13.2 5.7 2.6 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Sarah Maple 100% 3.4 0.1 6.2 31.3 33.9 15.8 7.1 3.0 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Mallory Weller 100% 18.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 2.1 2.9 4.0 5.7 6.8 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.0 5.0 3.9 3.7 100.0%
Faye Kropf 100% 22.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.4 2.4 2.8 3.9 5.0 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.2 6.0 100.0%
Hannah Clark 100% 23.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.1 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.0 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.0 5.6 100.0%
Lilly Schlicker 100% 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.3 3.8 4.6 5.2 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.8 100.0%
Ellie Walters 100% 35.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.0 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 2.2 0.1 43.1 33.6 13.5 5.9 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Sarah Maple 2.4 0.1 33.7 37.2 16.1 7.4 3.2 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Mallory Weller 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.0 4.9 7.6 11.2 13.8 12.7 11.4 9.0 6.5 5.2 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5
Faye Kropf 17.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.5 7.6 9.6 10.1 11.0 10.5 9.2 7.5 6.3 4.9 3.9 2.9 2.0
Hannah Clark 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.4 6.8 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.3 9.2 8.6 7.1 5.8 4.4 3.4 2.4
Lilly Schlicker 18.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.0 5.8 7.6 9.1 9.9 10.2 9.1 8.8 7.4 6.3 4.9 4.1
Ellie Walters 25.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.7 2.5 4.3 4.8 6.4 7.7 9.2 9.4